by O Society Nov 10, 2018
Today someone asked:
“Now the 2018 Midterm Elections are over. What do the results tell us about who is going to win in the 2020 presidential race? Should we be pessimistic or optimistic?
To arrive at a real answer, and most importantly stay off the emotional roller coaster hatefest hellscape known as years of the 2016 election…
…we’ll address the big question asked by our reader through answering multiple smaller easier questions.
Each answer has a blue HTML link with background on how we arrive at this answer.
And away we go…
I don’t think Trump will be impeached, so the safe assumption is he will be the Republican candidate in 2020.
How Do We Know the Resistance™ is Not Real?
Treason, Impeachment, Emoluments: This is How We Know for Certain We’re Played by the Media
There is no “leader” in the Democratic party right now.
Congress’ approval rating is 20%
Congressional Approval Polls
Trump’s approval rating is 40%
Latest polls: State of the Union
Trump is very manipulative. He framed the 2018 midterm elections as if Republicans were running runs against Nancy Pelosi.
Remember, in upside-down world, it doesn’t matter whether it is true or not; what matters is this gets voters emotional. Emotional people are motivated to vote.
FoxNews: GOP Uses Pelosi as Campaign Tool
Pelosi’s approval rating is 30%, so Trump beats her. No Blue Wave
Nancy Pelosi’s favorability rating falls to 9-year low among Democrats
Simultaneously, Trump also framed the 2018 elections as if it were still him running against Hillary Clinton, as it was in 2016.
FoxNews: Hillary Clinton is Star of GOP Midterm Plan
Hillary Clinton’s approval rating is 35%, so Trump beats her.
Hillary Clinton Favorable Rating is Still Low
Clinton and Pelosi are the current villains on FoxNews, as there are years of hostility baggage dumped into viewers’ minds. Say their names –> salivate like Pavlov’s dogs.
No leadership for the Democrats might be a good thing because there’s less stockpiled resentment for Republicans to use as fuel. No salient exemplar to rile Trump’s base.
For example, today, Trump is mad at Michelle Obama, again. She’s written a book to cash in, just as Comey, Clinton, and all the rest have gone to the bank. Clinton(s) and Obama(s) guarantee emotional Trump supporters. Who vote.
Yes, we know Michelle Obama and Oprah Winfrey are your ideal liberal candidates. They’re black and female. We get it. You’re confused. So are we. What’s real and what’s TV?
Forget what’s “politically correct.” Forget “It’s Her Turn.” Forget reality TV celebrities.
For now. Let it go… It’s not that race is not important; it’s that now is not the time.
Don’t play Trump’s game. It’s the only way he can win. Make everyone look stupid.
People got burned by Barack Obama. Yes, he’s black.
No, he didn’t help regular people.
Therefore, right now, regular people don’t want to be told we are obligated to vote for a candidate because he/ she is black.
Or because she’s female. Didn’t work for Hillary. “At least I’m not Trump” doesn’t work either.
Isn’t going to work vs Trump. Identity politics will lose. Listen, please…
Moreover, if you are the Democratic party and you actually want to win, you run Bernie Sanders vs Trump. It isn’t even close. Bernie has the personality to ignore the nonsense and focus on the issues.
However, the DNC rigged the primary election against Sanders in 2016 for a reason.
They will not support him. Ever. Even if it means 4 more years of Trump horror show.
Nancy Pelosi will tell you she has more in common with Ronald Reagan than she does Bernie Sanders. Believe her.
When we voted on Tuesday, Nov 6th, I had planned to vote for as many third party candidates as I could find. There were about 10 Libertarian candidates in about 30 races on our ballot. Zero Green party or other parties represented on our ballot…
So how come the Kochs and Mercers of the world can buy Libertarian, Freedom Caucus, Tea Party, whatever groups… and the damned left wing has zero? None.
If Americans generally hate the R and D parties and everyone in them, why can’t we just walk away?
If there’s nothing in it for us, why don’t Americans just get together, grab the torches and pitchforks, and run the bastards out? All of them.
There are more Americans who consider themselves Independents than Republicans or Democrats.
Why has there been no range of positions within the Democratic party for decades?
I never even heard of a “Progressive Caucus.” Why is there no “Socialist Caucus?”
Even if you are not a Socialist and the US is not a Socialist country, there needs to be some leftward gravitational pull.
The Republicans keep moving rightward and dragging the Democrats with them. The Kochs and Mercers pushing them by buying think tanks and sponsoring specific politicians like NASCAR is one reason. But here’s another. How come there is no left wing TV in America?
MSNBC is a joke. You can’t even question war out loud on their TV station without getting fired.
If you can’t publicly question nuclear war, the military industrial complex, neoliberal economics, etc on cable TV, then there can be no left-wing news.
At this moment, there is some momentum in moving the Overton Window leftward, mainly as a reaction to Trump and Sanders. Power to the people.
Democrats own the left coast and right coast. NY and California. And there’s a hole in their donut.
I am afraid we still are “hosed” mainly because the Democratic party will choose to run a woman or a black person (preferably both) for president in 2020. They will lose to Trump when they do.
Cory Booker & Kamala Harris in Iowa 2020
Please note, I have nothing against blacks or women. Just saying these “minority” groups do not match up well vs. Trump.
Most “left-wing” or “progressive” or “Social Democrats” would vote for Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. One for president and the other for vice president is optimal.
CNN says Warren is now their top choice:
I’m afraid Warren’s being female and being temperamentally unsuited to running against Trump (she likes to argue with him) will fail:
In other words, Biden is just another New Democrat, as is HillBillary Clinton and the Obamas. Centrists. Moderate Republicans running as Democrats.
If there is one thing the 2016 US Presidential election should have taught everyone, it’s people are sick and tired of Obamas and Clintons and Bushes.
Bush and Clinton are aristocrats, royal families, they get the big money from big donors. They won’t help us. They don’t even know us.
Instead, we must have a campaign and a candidate who takes small donations from millions of Americans. This is the only way to hold any politician accountable.
We need a new independent party with dues. That’s correct. Send $20. Join the party. No big donors such as Koch or Mercer or Soros or Steyer allowed.
A party for real people. Not corporations or oligarchs. Only 0.5% of the population is wealthy enough give $200 or more. These 0.5% donors control everything in US politics. Time to cap finance amounts.
2018 Campaign Finance Population Totals
|Total US Population (estimate)
|Pct of US population giving $200+
|Pct of US population giving $2,700+
|A Tiny elite 0.42%
||Contributes 70% of Campaign Funds
Campaign Donor Demographics
Percent of campaign donors giving less than $200 to the campaign:
Which makes Sanders the real populist
Clinton the real oligarchy tool
and Trump somewhere in between… so call him a “populist tool.”
Therefore, we have evidence it can happen:
“The amazing thing about 2016 wasn’t Trump, it was the Sanders campaign. It’s the first time in American history that a candidate probably could have won, if it hadn’t been for party managers
who kept him out, with no funding from the corporate sector, and no funding from the wealthy, and no media support.
So, it’s a real breakthrough, but to carry out [a potential eclipse of the donor class] moving forward is going to be really hard because there’s also going to be a mobilized effort on the part of the entire capitalist class, Republican and Democrat, to prevent that from happening.
If Sanders had run, I think he would have been slaughtered by the propaganda [from the establishment oligarchy donor class], and it would have been massive propaganda about this Jewish, atheist, communist who wants to bring immigrants in to kill everybody.”
Bernie Sanders’ FDR New Deal Democrat policies are the most popular among Americans.
However, if Sanders (born September 8, 1941) wins in 2020, he will be eighty by the time he takes office in 2021.
So who is younger who will advocate these same policies and run in 2020?
Someone who at the very minimum is not a neoconservative and not a neoliberal?
I don’t know.
Post script added 11/11:
No need to summon Cthulhu just yet, That’s too pessimistic.
We’re looking for a young white left-leaning male to run for president in 2020. That’s the demographic I believe will work best vs. Trump, in any case.
Who knows who is going to emerge?
My main point here regarding the Democratic party is the Old Ones. Their day is done.
The “Hopey Changey” thing was faked. Time for something authentic.
Time for something completely new. Any hope for the future begins with new names.
Consider the ages of the usual suspects.
The Old Ones:
Joe Biden November 20, 1942 (age 75 years)
Bernie Sanders September 8, 1941 (age 77 years)
Hillary Clinton October 26, 1947 (age 71 years)
Elizabeth Warren June 22, 1949 (age 69 years)
Nancy Pelosi March 26, 1940 (age 78 years)
Chuck Schumer November 23, 1950 (age 67 years)
Dianne Feinstein June 22, 1933 (age 85 years)
All of these Old Gods will be over-70-something in 2020.
Who are people talking about, excited by, in the Democratic party?
The Young Ones:
Beto O’Rourke September 26, 1972 (age 46 years)
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez October 13, 1989 (age 29 years)
Cory Booker April 27, 1969 (age 49 years)
Kamala Harris October 20, 1964 (age 54 years)
Kirsten Gillibrand December 9, 1966 (age 51 years)
If the democratic party wants to win again, whether it is the “socialist” route or the “identity politics” route, they need younger candidates if they want people motivated to vote.
If you want some optimism, that’s where to find it.
The point being, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton days are done. See ya!
People found out when Obama bailed out the banks instead of the homeowners, he is not authentic.
People know the Clintons are not authentic.
Above all, the candidate must be authentic. As in AUTHENTIC. Only someone legit with legit belief in their legit policies can stand upt to Trump’s relentless onslaught of fake-populist right-wing nihilism.
This is why people like Bernie Sanders. You may or may not believe in his policies, but you can tell BERNIE believes in his policies.